White Collar: The Theory...

[fajrdrako]

Two weeks ago, after watching the season opener of White Collar, we tried to figure out the long-range plot. We asked ourselves questions like: Is Kate really dead? Who tried to kill her, and why? Was Neal really the intended target of the attack? Who was behind Garret Fowler? What was the connection between Kate and the FBI?

If I wait any longer to write this out, I'll forget our theories, or be jossed, or some part of this will be proved right, but it doesn't look clever to say it after the fact. So here you are: the White Collar theories.

We hashed this over in discussion, 'we' being commodorified, random, fairestcat, and auriaephiala. commodorified even had her own mental flow charts: "if this, then this". We all had input into the discussion, and we all had a slightly different take on our conclusions, and I don't want to imply that any or all of us adopted all the same theories - I'm presenting my take on it.

And isn't it great to have a tv show that warrants this kind of thought?

Who was Kate? She was Neal's girlfriend, obviously. His partner, who left him shortly before his sentence was up, setting the events of the show into motion. Was she a con artist and a crook? Yes; she certainly participated in Neal's crimes and his lifestyle.

The Interpol agent we met in "All In" knew all about Kate and Neal. Kate and Fowler were in contact, and Peter had access to her, and knew her. My conclusion: Kate was either an undercover agent (possibly for Interpol, if international art theft was her field), or an informant - a thief feeding evidence to the FBI and Interpol in return for immunity.

So why did she break up with Neal when she did? My guess: she was passing on information about a certain big-time felon, and he found out what she was doing. Maybe he threatened Neal, and she wanted to put space between them to save him. Maybe she was simply in danger herself, but still unable to identify or find the Secret Villain, so he could be neutralized. So she hid till, ultimately, he found her. Possibly Fowler sold her out?

Another assumption: something that Neal knows, but doesn't know he knows, is significant. Maybe it involved the music box.

Is Kate dead? We discussed the probability: I conclude it's about 50/50. The evidence would point to her being dead - Peter and Neal seem to fully believe it, and Peter is in a position to know about the forensic evidence. On the other hand: can the writer's resist a big reveal, when Kate turns up again, alive? Maybe, maybe not. (You can't believe what they say to fans or the press. They lie.)

At the moment, it seems to me that she best serves the plot by being dead, but you never know. Maybe it's that I'd prefer her to be dead, not to stand in the way of Neal's better life alongside Peter.

So who is the secret villain? There aren't many suspects. The villain was behind Fowler's attempts to discrace and neutralize Peter, and the plot to kill Kate. It certainly isn't Neal, who loved her. I also rule out Peter - commodorified doesn't entirely trust him, but I do.

If it were Elizabeth, it would totally be a cheat, so it isn't. Elizabeth is love... and honesty.

Hughes, Lauren, and Jones seem too peripheral to be villainous, and there's no resonance to it. Diana is much more plausible: she has the brains, the talent, and the steely nerve, but unless everything we know of her is false, she would never betray or deceive Peter.

Mozzie? He might want Kate out of the way, and one can imagine him believing in conspiracies enough to mastermind one himself, but I tend to believe that what we see with Mozzie is what we get; and he wouldn't hurt Neal, not even to hurt Kate in order to save him from her.

Ditto Alex. We're looking for a plot that's satisfying, something already set up, something twisty but not from out of the blue.

So who's left? At this point in our discussion, random said, "It could be..." just as I said, "June." This theory of course evoked much scrutiny, and fit better all the time. No, hear me out. I don't doubt that June feels great affection for Neal, but not necessarily for Peter, the FBI, or Kate. We know she was married to Byron, a felon, presumably a very successful and rich one, to judge by his home, his possessions, and his connections. Also, by "June", I can extrapolate to unseen presences behind her. If Byron were a gangster, perhaps he left his business empire to a son or daughter - we've seen two of June's grandchildren, but none of her children.

Moreover, Byron might have faked his own death - which might be the secret he is trying to hide. Along with, perhaps, a treasure trove of stolen art, with the music box hiding a clue.

When Neal met June in the thrift shop in the Pilot, it looked as if he was using his opportunistic charm to get himself a posh home and clothes; but it could have been a set-up with Neal as the mark. The hat, the clothes, the convenient guest room might be bait. (Never assume you're the smartest one in the room.) Having Neal under their eye and on the premises would be an advantage, and it would explain why June kept everything in place for him between "Out of the Box" and "Withdrawal". Perhaps they need to know something Neal knows, or perhaps just to keep an eve on his doings with the FBI and with Peter. Or perhaps it's in order to isolate Neal from both Peter (by setting Fowler on him) and Kate (by killing her).

Can you think of evidence I've missed, to support or contradict these theories?